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Home/Research Paper Library/Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks

Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks

METR's time-horizon metric and its seven-month doubling, the most cited quantitative trend for agent autonomy.

time horizonautonomymetr

Research question

How fast is the length of tasks AI agents can complete growing?

Key findings

The 50%-success task horizon has doubled roughly every seven months since 2019 - Extrapolation implies month-long tasks within years

Sources

arxiv.orghttps://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499

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